Ten game theory predictions about who will win Tuesday
Hi, I’m Mike. I’m a game designer. I‘m a member of #Gamers4Harris, a group of more than a thousand game and puzzle creators who endorse Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. I also contributed a crossword to Puzzlers for Harris, a free set of political puzzles by a who’s who of creative talent. If you play games and puzzles, you’ll want to know that almost every American who makes them is supporting the Democratic ticket.
But who cares what game designers think? All we know is how strategy works and how people make choices and … you get the idea. We’re reasonably good at predicting results. It’s because we know game theory, a set of tools for reading behavior and expecting outcomes. In 2016, I predicted Clinton (who was at 99% likelihood to win) would lose when Comey’s letter came out, 11 days out from the election. In 2020, I predicted Biden’s exact electoral vote total. In 2022, I was off on the number of House seats Democrats would win … by one. I get some things right. I get some other things wrong. Mostly, I just look at what happened in the past and take a swing at what will happen in the future.
With ballots being cast, what-is-past and what-is-future merge into the present. What will happen is happening right now. So, I’ll give you ten predictions based on what I know. I’m basing them all on one game theory meta-concept: what is in people’s best interests.
It’s common to ask, “Why do people vote against their best interests all the time?” That’s a silly question. People vote for what they perceive is in their best interest at the time. It doesn’t matter if they’re wrong about that in the long term. Just because you think they should value something doesn’t mean they do. What matters is, do they think their action will pay off for them? So all you need to know is, who are they and what do they want?
Voting blocs aren’t monoliths. But they’re “monolithy.” You can know things based on past behavior. You can read the ground. Importantly, so can they. Groups tend to move in lockstep because of social consequences to not doing so. Sometimes you want those! Very often you don’t.
Here’s my read on what will happen on election day, if everyone in America votes based on what I think they think is in their interest. You can look back later this week and see how I did. Could be a train wreck. Or I could hit the electoral vote count exactly, like I did last time. You never know. Let’s find out together. I think that…
1. White men will disappoint. Possibly more than ever. Again.
I’ll use “disappoint” to mean “sacrifice democracy and the rights of others.” Why would they do something crazy like that? From a certain perspective, only one group benefits when the rights of the underprivileged get trampled. If you’re a white man, you either believe it is wrong for you to benefit when others lose or you celebrate it. There will be a lot of white men celebrating it.
There will be quite a lot of white dudes for Harris, of course. Some more won’t vote. Some who would have voted for Trump will peel off because they want their daughters to have a brighter future, or at least they will tell their daughters that. Some establishment Republicans that cannot stomach Trump will write in Dick Cheney. That could get white men to a high of 40% for Harris. That’s a lot. But still problematic on every level.
There’s a huge distinction between voters with college degrees and voters without. If you believe polls, Harris is winning white men with college degrees and losing those without degrees by a wide mile. This could very well be the difference between winning and losing. White supremacy is a hell of a drug.
The gender gap in this election is going to put white men on the wrong side of history by at least 20 points (that is, 60–40 Trump). It could be more. Where white people are superdominant — the Deep South, the middle of the country — the sheer number of white men means there won’t be many surprises. Except maybe one, because…
2. White women will vote more “women” than “white” for once.
We can be reliably certain that Harris will collect at least 80% of black women and at least 60% of Latino women. But what about white women? What is in their interest?
Lots of things. Grocery prices and crime, for example. (Both quite a bit lower than FOX News would tell you.) Pretty much everything. But you don’t need me to tell you that the first post-Dobbs presidential election will be a referendum on women’s rights. So, we need to know whether white women will trend more to “white” or more to “women.”
There are a lot of anti-abortion white women. But at least two-thirds of women don’t think men should be telling women what to do with their bodies. In every state where abortion has been on the ballot, women — and in red states, most of them are white — have carried those referendums to victory. Older women — who saw their friends and family die during Trump’s mismanagement of COVID — have a memory of life before Roe. Women with college degrees are Harris’s biggest bloc, and possibly the biggest bloc of all. So far, women are vastly outpacing men in the voting booths. They are not going back.
Iowa is a state that robbed women of their right to choose, even after a court affirmed it. Ann Selzer’s gold-standard Iowa poll this weekend showed Harris winning by 3. That’s a state where Biden was losing by 18. Even if Selzer is off a bit, Harris could pull off a surprise victory here. I did not have that on my bingo card.
Where else are reproductive rights on the ballot? Arizona. Colorado. Florida. Maryland. Missouri. Montana. Nebraska. Nevada. New York. South Dakota. Democrats are definitely winning three of those. We’re definitely losing three.
Four of them — Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, and Nevada — are in play. Women have a chance of priming some upset victories for Harris in these states. If they vote their interest, white women will go around 52–48 Harris nationwide, the first time Democrats break 50 since Obama. Which leads me to think…
3. Tim Walz will win some electoral votes.
Pennsylvania really matters! Josh Shapiro would have locked down Pennsylvania, everybody says. Why pick anyone else?
There were plenty of reasons not to pick the popular-in-PA Shapiro. I won’t belabor those. I’d rather focus on why Tim Walz, he of the razor-sharp zinger which mysteriously disappears when he’s wearing a tie, was by far the best choice among the governors in contention.
Tim Walz is the well-regarded governor of Minnesota. That gets you Minnesota. No surprise there. But he’s also a native Nebraskan. He knows what whatever that piroshky thing in Nebraska is. Nebraska is a state that apportions its electoral votes into three blocs (2, 2, and 1). He’s winning you that one vote in his home city of Omaha for sure. That’s nine votes.
If the Selzer poll is right, he might also be a reason why Harris is winning Iowa, the state between Nebraska and Minnesota. There’s more than abortion to be considered there. In that part of the country, soybeans are a huge crop. Trump’s tariff war wrecked the soybean economy. Walz has been all over that issue. If he’s doing Democrats that much service in Iowa, then why stop believing with Iowa? What about those other electoral votes? Don’t they have farmers who hate tariffs in Nebraska?
Walz, the abortion amendment, and tariffs could turn this state from one electoral vote for Harris to three, or maybe even five. Is it likely? I don’t know. I’d look into the possibility that the red part of Nebraska isn’t fully red. You never know who might surprise you. Speaking of that…
4. The Latino vote will not be a monolith.
Several swing states are heavily populated by Latinos and other immigrant populations. It matters which ones.
Let’s talk about Florida. Cubans in Miami — home of Ronald W. Reagan Avenue, where you will find the best wheat milkshakes in the world — are reliably Republican. It’s hard to imagine what would change that. But they aren’t the only Floridians with heritage from south of our border.
The other big Latino group in Florida? Puerto Ricans. There’s a million of them. Per the polls in the wake of the Madison Square Garden rally, they favor Harris 85% to 8% (not a typo). Also, while not Latinos, there are half a million Haitians in the Fort Lauderdale area. They didn’t take Trump and Vance’s “They’re eating the dogs” comments well. Is a swing of a million votes enough to tip Florida? We shall see.
Arizona and Nevada’s Hispanic population is mostly of Mexican descent. This is a group that has had several generations in those states; most were born here. Many of them no longer have ties to Mexico. That suggests they might think it in their interests to behave more like white voters. And yet…
Trump has implied that he’s coming after legal immigrants. That’s moms and grandmas. I’m not so sure Trump has the inroads here he needs. Post-MSG, I expect many Latinos think it’s in their interest not to cater to white nationalists. I think Latinos in Arizona and Nevada are likely to tilt slightly left, maybe 62–48, possibly just enough. This leads me to the theory that…
5. Texas is on the cusp.
How much of a party would you throw if Ted Cruz lost to Colin Allred tomorrow? The biggest you’ve ever thrown? The biggest anyone’s ever thrown? It could happen.
How angry Latinos are is a giant factor in Texas’s votes. But don’t bet solely on them. Texas could be a state we lose by half a million or win by fifty thousand. Who knows? All I know is that the Harris campaign thinks it’s in play. Jasmine Crockett sure does. The Democratic rally with Beyonce got some of the biggest numbers in the campaign.
Broadly, what is in Texas’s interests this election? Immigration matters a lot here. Folks paying attention know that Republicans scuttled the Biden administration’s border bill and folks not paying attention don’t. I cannot tell how many Texans are in which group. My guess is more people blame Biden than credit him here. But I don’t know. If you told me that “Blexas” happened — especially if that Iowa poll is right — I wouldn’t be shocked.
Even if we don’t win Texas’s electoral votes — a long shot if there ever was one — the implications for Allred’s race and the House are colossal. If electoral gambling were legal in the US, I don’t know if I’d bet against Texas producing some huge Democratic wins. (Actually, I do know. Betting markets are stupid. Don’t do it.)
When immigration matters, sabotaging progress on immigration matters to the border states. That’s a contentious issue, but not more than this…
6. Gaza will matter in the Blue Wall. Maybe not the obvious way.
The pollercoaster has shown some things pretty consistently: Harris is either tied with or slightly ahead of Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, maybe a little more ahead in Michigan.
Harris has run a stunningly consistent campaign. On messaging, she has been ironclad on the economy, reproductive rights, housing, inflation, and Donald Trump’s unfitness. She has struggled a bit on immigration, but the message that Republicans gummed it up is clear.
There’s only one issue where she has hardly satisfied anyone. That’s Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Though she supports ending the war and bringing humanitarian aid to Palestinians, she does not say that Palestinians are being unjustly bombed by Israel. Maybe it’s because she believes they’re not. Maybe she feels she can’t step sideways from the sitting president. Maybe she’s just tired of being yelled at during every speech.
Regardless, there are plenty of folks mad at her for this. Some, like me, support ending arms sales to Israel, but aren’t willing to jettison 80 years of civil rights progress on one important disagreement. Some people, possibly including members of the 200,000-strong Arab community in Michigan, would make a different call. It’s a tragically charged decision that could go either way. It’s a matter of deciding whether to punish Harris at the potential cost of — well, everything.
I’m guessing (hoping?) Harris’s morally shaky position won’t backfire. That’s because Trump is so manifestly worse on this issue. He wants his crony Netanyahu to “finish the job.” He wants to deport American-born pro-Palestinian protesters. His son-in-law, the execrable Jared Kushner, is eyeing Gaza as a “waterfront property” opportunity. Trump’s ascent will kill more Palestinians and Lebanese than Harris’s. So, I again return to the question, what is in Arab Americans’ interest? It’s impossible to know how people will react in the face of overwhelming personal tragedy. I’m not making a prediction except to say Arab Americans will vote their interests just like the rest of us. How they define those interests will be closely watched.
But here’s a thing I feel I know better. Harris believes her position will stop the exodus of Jews to the Republican Party. It’s a huge bloc in Pennsylvania, where more than a third of million Jews reside. The Jewish vote has been one of the most reliable factors in Democratic politics, typically at least 70%. Jews are divided on this issue; many are anti-war while there are some Jewish voters who believe the administration has been too hard on Israel and too soft on pro-Palestinian protesters. Some will leave. Most will stay. Jewish voters should come out strong for Harris.
My guess is that Harris takes the entire Blue Wall — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. It could be very close. We could still lose all of these, but I’m betting that…
7. Young people are ready for it.
Giving Trump credit where due, Taylor Swift has either the first or second the most devoted fanbase in America. Swift’s endorsement of Harris changed the electoral map. Charli XCX, LeBron James, Ariana Grande, AOC, David Hogg, most of Hollywood. Nearly everyone that young people have heard of is voting for Kamala.
But that doesn’t matter. What matters is that generational change is the most important issue for the generation on the rise. What is in young people’s interest? To make sure the rest of us don’t screw everything up.
The environment is on the ballot. Gun control is on the ballot. Reproductive freedom is on the ballot. The right to vote is on the ballot. These are issues that matter to Gen Z. They care. They just need to be drawn out to vote. That’s where we have an edge.
Harris and Walz have been meeting young people everywhere they are — on TikTok, on Twitch gaming streams, at football games, at concerts, and in the streets. The vibrancy of this campaign is palpable. Trump speaks for hours at a time, weaving everywhere. Vance just stands there disapprovingly. Harris and Walz are walking soundbites. They make sense in the way young people want sense to be made.
A lot of young people will sit this one out, as they always do. A few who wander to third parties on their first time out. But the majority will vote for their future. Kamala will win this group by 35 points. Turnout will be key. I’ll bet the youth of America will make us proud. And speaking of proud…
8. African Americans will save America yet again.
Donald Trump likes to tell us he’s going to win a huge number of black voters. He’s not. He’s gonna get crushed.
The Nazi-style Madison Square Garden rally ended the ridiculous vision of Trump as a president for all Americans. That loathsome comic, Tony Hinchcliffe, who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”? He also made a watermelon joke. This stuff does not go unnoticed.
If there’s one group whose interests are best served by Harris presidency, it’s African Americans. They gain no benefit from a white supremacist takeover of the White House, especially one aided and abetted by a racist South African billionaire. (Actually, two racist South African billionaires.)
Especially, think about African American women and African American parents with daughters. Think about what it’s like when the president looks like you. This is an oversimplification, for sure. But representation matters. Choosing between a white supremacist and an avatar of hope should give African American voters an easy choice. Minimum 80% Harris, says me.
North Carolina and Georgia are primed to go blue. There are six million African Americans in those two states. The North Carolinians have a black gubernatorial candidate in Mark Robinson, who liked to call himself a “black Nazi.” Per the polls, he’s losing to Josh Stein by double digits. Is there that big a gap between Robinson and Trump? Who knows? I’m taking the bet on North Carolina. Especially since some fool rode into hurricane country and crapped all over FEMA. North Carolina goes blue.
And Georgia? Are you gonna be surprised if Metro Atlanta carries the day again? With Trump on trial in Judge McBurney’s courtroom? I will not be surprised. I like both these two states. In fact…
9. I like all of them. Harris wins in a blowout.
This is my map. I’m picking Harris 397, Trump 141.
Am I confident? Hell no, I’m not confident. Not even a little. I’m a game designer, not a psychic. This prediction could be incredibly embarrassing in a very short amount of time. We are just as likely, if not more so, to lose all the swing states. The polling error could break toward Trump yet again and MAGA could reign supreme. Game theory or no, predicting elections is nuts.
I’m putting this map out because I want it to be true. I’m projecting. I want to think that white supremacy, lies, and demagoguery are not the most powerful political forces in America. I want to think that raising money matters ($1 billion and counting), that enthusiasm matters (+10 for Democrats), that ground game matters (we have one, they don’t), that felony convictions matter (he has 34, we don’t). Because otherwise, nihilism is the only thing that matters. I like to imagine that the majority of us won’t vote for nihilism. Game theory can’t help me with that. Hope can.
But here’s the thing. Hope doesn’t come without information. You know how you’re nervous? Like your brain is telling you things might be okay but your heart is saying not to get trust that feeling? How you’re afraid to say you think she will on social media. Well, the other side doesn’t ever think like that. They are loud, brash, and supremely confident. But it’s a tossup race. Without an obvious outcome, game theory says those projecting strength are covering weakness. The side that fears losing will work much harder than the side that thinks it’s got this in the bag. We’ve got all the effort on our side. That’s information. It’s what you can use. Don’t let game theory convince you. Just do the work. All gas, no brakes.
That’s what game theory tells me. So, to bring it back home, this is my final, most rock-solid prediction.
10. After the election, there will still be dogs.
Despite our propensity to rile ourselves up in election season, dogs still love us. That never changes, no matter who wins on Tuesday.
The Democratic candidates love dogs. The head of the Republican ticket hates them. His running mate is incredibly awkward around his own dog. And they did lie that dogs were being eaten. That’s just not right.
Vote for the two that clearly love dogs. Vote Harris/Walz 2024.
This is the 75th installment of a series on politics and game theory. It has covered impeachment of Trump, Russian collusion, white supremacy, abortion, guns, nuclear war, debt, Colin Kaepernick, sexual harassment, the Mueller probe, taxes, Trump’s first year, the Clinton Foundation, immigration, parades, the Democrats, hope, family separation, trade wars, the midterms, the Times op-ed, Justice Kavanaugh, Speaker Pelosi, lame ducks, the GOP legacy, the stock market, the Democratic field, shutdowns, third parties, the Virginia scandals, in-party impeachment, the Trump mafia, college admissions, William Barr, Brexit, Iran, the Mueller Report, Joe Biden, Oregon’s standoff, the environment, Jeffrey Epstein, Trump’s lies, Pelosi’s strategy, the impeachment inquiry, political outsiders, Rudy Giuliani, the Berlin wall, protest art, Boris Johnson, religion, engagement, Bernie Sanders, progressive unity, the Democratic nominee, the pandemic, unemployment, rioting, the Klan, the Confederacy, the GOP 2020 strategy, Biden’s strategy, the wildfire crisis, civil war, Kamala Harris, Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Biden’s case, Native Americans, the Capitol insurrection, Blizzard, election delegitimization, the Israel-Hamas War, Democrats’ 2024 strategy, Washington State politics, and Biden’s Gaza gambit. Many of these appear in my book Game Theory in the Age of Chaos, which you can get on our store now.
