A game designer tries to end the Gaza War in one week
I’m a game designer. I write games about war and horror and violence. But I don’t like any of those things in real life. Unsurprisingly, I’m also a Democrat. So I was delighted when Kamala Harris crushed Donald Trump in this week’s debate. The race is a coin flip, but the momentum is on our side. This is because she gives rational, relatable, and smart answers to policy questions, and the other guy yells “They’re eating the dogs!”
There is one issue on which clarity is on Trump’s side. I don’t mean he is right; he is not right. He is clear and Harris is murky. That issue is Israel’s invasion of Gaza and activities in the West Bank and Lebanon. Trump can articulate a simple and easy to grasp answer: Kill them all. Harris’s answer — Israel has a right to defend itself but it matters how they do it — seems to satisfy no one. Pro-Israel voters think she’s insufficiently supportive of Israel; pro-Palestine voters think she backs genocide. It might matter: Jews are a critical voting bloc in places like Pennsylvania and Arizona. Polls show a strong shift of Muslim Americans toward spoiler Jill Stein, most alarmingly in the critical state of Michigan. Young people care a lot about the war. This is a bad issue for Harris.
The best possible outcome for her would be if this issue went away. There is only one way that can happen: peace. But it’s not just in Harris’s interest. It’s in the interests of most Israeli Jews and most Palestinians. But it is not in the interests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose rocket to prison is delayed if the war rages on, or in the interests of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who cannot lose face when surrounded by insurgents.
That sounds intractable. I won’t pretend it isn’t. But what I will do is outline a scenario that might end the war, enabled by Harris’s great debate in a coin-flip election. And I’ll do it in one week. This one, starting Sunday. At least, I’ll try my best. This likely won’t happen, but it would be nice if it did.
My approach centers on the game theory tenet of “ambiguity aversion,” technically spelled out as “rational inattention to discrete choices when prior information matters.” People are rational actors. But they make choices not always in their interest because they don’t know everything they need to know. Knowing things has a cost: time, money, lives. Sometimes you can afford the cost. Often, you want to make a decision without paying the cost. That’s a complicated way to say a common phrase: “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” “The devil you know” is the information you understand to be true now, which tells you an outcome you can comprehend. But you don’t know what will happen if you don’t take it. The next opportunity — “the devil you don’t” — might be better but it might be much worse. Gamble now, the devil says.
This week, Joe Biden is the devil. Here’s his itinerary.
Sunday: Biden addresses the nation
It’s 2 p.m. Eastern. Joe Biden appears in America’s living rooms on a Sunday afternoon, again.
“My fellow Americans: This week, my team and I will travel to the Middle East. We will move the Oval Office to the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. I will continue to serve as your president while Vice President Harris is on the campaign trail. But I will be in Israel to try to forge a peace agreement in the war in Gaza. I may not succeed. But I will try.
“This may be a dangerous mission. Jill had some concerns, not a joke. My father, rest his soul, had a saying, he said, ‘Joey, if you have to go down, go down swinging.’ Look, the war in Gaza is one of the most awful things in the world now. People are dying. People are dying. It’s got to stop. With the few months I have left as your president, I couldn’t live with myself if I didn’t try to stop people from dying. I do this in the name of American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, whose was found in a grave, killed by Hamas. I do this in the name of American Aysenur Eygi, killed in the West Bank by the IDF. I do this in the name of so many people who didn’t ask to be caught up in this conflict, but paid the ultimate price.
“While I am in Jerusalem, I will meet with whoever wants to meet with me. My intent is to address the Knesset on Friday. I hope to have something worthwhile to tell them. My fellow Americans, know this: I am not kidding around.
“God bless America, and God bless our troops.”
No one has called the Israeli government.
Monday: Biden flies to Israel
It’s 8:30 p.m. Air Force One, accompanied by four F-22 Raptors, touches down at Ben Gurion International. Netanyahu is on the tarmac.
“Shalom, Mr. President. Your arrival is … unexpected.”
“Bibi, I am honored to be back in your lovely country. It was a long trip. As you know, I’m not the spring chicken I used to be. I do need to get my beauty sleep.”
“Mr. President, maybe if you …”
“I’ll see you later. Send a time over to the Embassy. I’ll come to Balfour to see you. We’ll have a lot to talk about.”
Biden’s motorcade heads downtown. Netanyahu remains on the tarmac.
Tuesday: Biden meets with the families
Netanyahu’s summons to Balfour, the House of the Head of Government, arrives at 9 a.m. on Tuesday. Biden sends his regrets due to unforeseen circumstances. These unforeseen circumstances were coordinated the previous day on Air Force One.
It’s 10 a.m. Biden is now meeting with the families of the Israeli hostages. On TV.
“Mr. President, we remain outraged. Netanyahu, he does not prioritize our loved ones’ safe return. How will this end?”
“I’m here now. I’m with you. We will bring them home. I promise you. You can tell your people that.”
A reporter from Israel National News shouts a question. Biden ignores her.
It’s 3 p.m. Biden is now meeting with the families of Palestinians killed in the bombings.
“They are killing our children, bombing them. Hamas, they do not care. When will the killing stop?”
“That depends on the Israelis. But I hope it will be soon. I think it will. It has to stop. You can tell anyone I said that.”
A reporter from Al Jazeera shouts a question. Biden ignores him.
Wednesday: Biden meets with Netanyahu
It’s 11 a.m. Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Ambassador Jack Lew are now meeting with Netanyahu and members of his cabinet. There are no press present.
“Joe, yesterday, it would have been nice…”
“Bibi, did you see Kamala? What did you think of her performance?”
“… She was articulate.”
“She scorched your guy, didn’t she? I couldn’t be more proud.”
“I would not call President Trump ‘my guy.’”
“Oh, of course not. Antony, what was it the former president said about her?”
“I believe it was that she ‘hates Israel.’”
“‘Hates Israel,’ right. He said Israel wouldn’t exist in two years if she were elected! Of course, you don’t believe that nonsense, do you, Bibi?”
“… The United States has always been a friend to Israel.”
“Always been a friend, yes. Still, Donald couldn’t be right about that, could he? I mean, your guy lies all the time, right?”
“….”
“She’s the underdog, that’s what she says. But she’s a pistol, isn’t she? She could beat the odds. I wouldn’t count her out. Anyway, let’s talk about a deal. I don’t have a lot of time left, but I’m sure there are some things we can all agree on.”
There’s a protest outside. Biden remains seated. Blinken goes to the window.
“Who is it?”
“Antony, it sounds like someone in pain.”
Thursday: Biden meets with Hamas (sort of)
It’s noon. Biden and his team are now meeting with Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al Thani, the Qatari Ambassador. While Qatar claims no official link to Hamas, Al Thani acknowledges he can convey messages to “interested parties.” There are no press present.
“It’s good you are here, Mr. Ambassador. Please convey my warm wishes to your brother, the Emir.”
“This I will do, Mr. President. How was your meeting with the Prime Minister.”
“Oh, you know how he is.”
“I’m afraid I do.”
“Sheikh Al Thani — may I call you that?— I wonder if you saw the debate between our vice president and President Trump last week.”
“We all did. She was most commanding.”
“She was! But you know, she’s the underdog, that’s what everybody says. She might lose. Odds are she will, I’m afraid. Antony, what was that thing President Trump said about the Israelis?”
“I believe it was that the Prime Minister should ‘finish the problem.’”
“…”
“‘Finish the problem,’ right. I sure don’t like those words, but what are you gonna do? He’s got no impulse control, none. If his people tell him to, he’s gonna let Bibi finish the problem. Anyway, let’s talk about a deal. I don’t have a lot of time left, but I’m sure there are some things we can all agree on.”
There’s a protest outside. Biden remains seated. Blinken goes to the window.
“Different folks this time.”
“Same amount of pain.”
Friday: Biden goes to the Knesset
It’s 6 p.m. in Givat Ram. The Knesset Plenum has been in session for seven hours. Ambassador Lew paces the floor. Biden has not entered the chamber.
“It’ll be sundown soon, sir. They will go home for the Sabbath.”
“Hang on, Jack.”
“Should I—”
“Just hang on.”
There’s a knock on the door. The Secret Service exits, then returns with Ambassador Al Thani. Biden stands up.
“Sheikh Al Thani, I’m so glad you…”
There’s another knock at the door.
Ten minutes later, Biden stands in the well of the Knesset.
“My friends, it is great to be with you. This is my eleventh visit to your country since I was first… look, it’s been a long time. I love this country. But you’ve… it’s always been hard. Things are tough here. But there’s one thing I know, it’s that when there is peace here, it’s a beautiful place. A beautiful place.
“I have in my hands a two-page document, one page signed by your Prime Minister and the other by the representatives of Hamas. I’ve read it. It’s good. The hostages will come home. The bombing will stop. There will be steps toward a solution in Gaza. Next month, on the anniversary of October 7, there’ll be peace.
“And look, I didn’t do this, you did. You can take it the rest of the way too. If you want. I know I want you to.
“This is my last time here, I expect. You’ve always treated me well. So, folks, I ask you: Will you take us there?”
The sun sets over Jerusalem.
The Sabbath: Biden rests
It’s 8 a.m. Air Force One climbs over the Mediterranean. Biden is asleep.
Around the world, people dance in the streets.
This is the 74th installment of a series on politics and game theory. It has covered impeachment of Trump, Russian collusion, white supremacy, abortion, guns, nuclear war, debt, Colin Kaepernick, sexual harassment, the Mueller probe, taxes, Trump’s first year, the Clinton Foundation, immigration, parades, the Democrats, hope, family separation, trade wars, the midterms, the Times op-ed, Justice Kavanaugh, Speaker Pelosi, lame ducks, the GOP legacy, the stock market, the Democratic field, shutdowns, third parties, the Virginia scandals, in-party impeachment, the Trump mafia, college admissions, William Barr, Brexit, Iran, the Mueller Report, Joe Biden, Oregon’s standoff, the environment, Jeffrey Epstein, Trump’s lies, Pelosi’s strategy, the impeachment inquiry, political outsiders, Rudy Giuliani, the Berlin wall, protest art, Boris Johnson, religion, engagement, Bernie Sanders, progressive unity, the Democratic nominee, the pandemic, unemployment, rioting, the Klan, the Confederacy, the GOP 2020 strategy, Biden’s strategy, the wildfire crisis, civil war, Kamala Harris, Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Biden’s case, Native Americans, the Capitol insurrection, Blizzard, election delegitimization, the Israel-Hamas War, Democrats’ 2024 strategy, and Washington State politics. Most of these appear in my book Game Theory in the Age of Chaos, which you can get on our store now.
